The Cards Are on the Table

Brazil has emerged from the polls with a combination that deserves more reflection and less reaction. A stronger right across state governments and Congress. A re-elected president from the left. Before looking for a contradiction in the electorate, perhaps we should accept that voters make their own choices.

In my view, the advance of the right cannot be explained simply as a rejection of the left. People identify with ideas, of course, but also with individuals. Proximity, trust, track records and local ties help explain why someone chooses a particular governor, representative or senator. Voters are under no obligation to cast every ballot for the same political camp.

In the first round, Flávio Bolsonaro finished slightly ahead of Lula. Some saw that lead, combined with the parliamentary results, as a preview of the presidential outcome. Yesterday, voters decided otherwise. For the first time in a Brazilian presidential runoff, the candidate who had finished second in the opening round won the election.

The second round reshapes the choice. Two candidates, different comparisons, new connections. Local endorsements still matter, but they do not automatically transfer a voter’s trust. A vote cast for a governor does not belong to that governor to hand over to a presidential candidate.

Each voter makes their own judgment. And the vote is sovereign.

Victory for the candidate who initially trailed brings the election to a close. It does not close off the country’s possibilities.

We will have continuity in the executive branch, but a different balance of power in the legislature. The right’s gains in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate create greater scope for effective checks on the administration. This configuration deserves consideration beyond the satisfaction of those who won or the frustration of those who lost.

Congress helps determine budgets, taxes, spending and reforms. The Senate approves or rejects nominations to the Supreme Federal Court and holds specific constitutional powers to enforce accountability. These are significant instruments, provided they are exercised with sound judgment and respect for the independence of each branch.

What remains to be seen is how those elected will use that strength. Will we have a majority guided by its convictions, capable of advancing more market-oriented economic policies and exercising consistent oversight? Or will those positions lose importance when public appointments and resources are distributed?

Negotiation is part of democracy. The problem begins when the substance of that negotiation ceases to be an agenda for the country.

I prefer to see this configuration as a substantial opportunity. An opposition with the practical ability to prevent excesses, propose alternatives and participate in decisions. An executive that sustains investment, exercises fiscal responsibility and respects central bank autonomy. A legislature that holds itself to those same standards.

None of this happens automatically simply because political power is divided. But there is room for it to happen.

For the oil and gas industry, that possibility has very concrete implications. A strong Petrobras, with investment capacity, capital discipline and a consistent shipbuilding programme, can sustain demand, develop suppliers and provide visibility for long-term industrial decisions. That process is already underway, with orders and deliveries supporting the renewal of the Petrobras group’s fleet.

There is room to bring this agenda together with a Congress more supportive of private investment and legal certainty. These interests can converge.

The Merchant Marine Fund, or FMM, deserves attention in that effort. We need to discuss how available resources can translate into accessible financing, viable contracts and delivered vessels. The Parliamentary Front in Support of Oil, Gas and Energy, chaired by Eduardo Pazuello, can help bring industry into that discussion.

Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina have concrete reasons to work together. The northern states, with their shipbuilding capabilities and experience in inland navigation, must have an equally prominent place in that effort. New oil frontiers and logistics requirements broaden the agenda.

Anyone ordering a vessel, expanding a shipyard or financing a project needs to see beyond the next electoral calendar. They need demand, stable rules, technical capability and commitments that survive changes in government.

That is the conversation in which I would like to see the country’s capable minds come together. There are investments to be made, industrial capabilities to be put to work and elected representatives across different political camps in a position to contribute.

The cards are on the table.