Petrobras raises 2026 outlook as offshore activity accelerates

Petrobras announced revised production and investment guidance for 2026 on November 10, raising its annual own oil and gas production forecast to 3.3–3.4 million boe/d, from 3.1 million boe/d.
​
Expected lease payments rose from US$10 billion to US$11–11.5 billion. Petrobras links the increase to greater demand for rigs, support vessels and oil-export shipping.
​
The stronger production outlook reflects operational efficiency, reservoir management, faster platform ramp-ups and P-79’s early start at Búzios. That unit began producing on May 1, three months ahead of the schedule in the 2026–2030 business plan.
​
Third-quarter results show how far production has already risen. Petrobras reported record own output of 3.51 million boe/d, including 2.96 million boe/d from the pre-salt. Eleven platforms have been authorised to produce above their original capacities without additional investment in the production units.
​
Capex guidance for the implementation portfolio increased from US$19.4 billion to US$24–25.5 billion. Petrobras attributes the revision to exchange rates and faster project execution, including FPSO construction for Búzios, Atapu and Sépia, greater rig availability and more well connections.
​
The revision also incorporates the expected customs nationalisation of the Búzios 9 and 10 platforms in 2026. Petrobras says the updated guidance does not represent an increase in total project costs.
​
Cash investment guidance for the implementation portfolio rose separately from US$16.9 billion to US$21–22 billion, also reflecting auction bonuses payable in December.
​
During the third quarter, E&P investment reached US$5.3 billion, mainly supporting platform construction and well connections. Operating cash flow totalled US$12 billion, while net income reached US$7.7 billion.
​